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Brexit can't and will not happen

Now that Parliament has the right to vote on the final deal, it is very likely that the Conservative government will support a public referendum on the deal as they will loose a vote in House of Commons.

The facts are such:

  • Government’s technical House of Commons majority: 13

  • Rebel MPs needed to block the majority: 7

  • Votes lost by the government since June: 11

  • Theresa May's pre-referendum position: Remain

  • Remain opinion poll lead since referendum: 2%-8%

  • Total Remain MPs in Conservative government: 176 of 317

  • Total hardline "Leave Means Leave" MPs in Conservative government: 50 of 317

(Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics)

So unless over 100 Conservative MPs who voted remain, change their minds and the Labour party continues not to reflect the views of its members: Only 4.2% of Labour members said they definitely believed Britain should leave. (Source: Economic and Social Research Council) then we will not leave the European Union.

So everyone needs to stand up and say stop article 50

However a further referendum may still not support Remain unless the government of the day is actually seen to be doing something to reduce economic inequality: increase income for lower earners with real living wage and income tax cuts and ensure the wealth we all help create is shared more equitably by a fair tax on assets, land and corporate profits which will be invested in health, education, housing and infrastructure for the good of all in this nation.

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